'Why We Make Mistakes' by Joseph T.Hallinan -p.99 treatment

I took out three books from my pile 'To Be Read' last night and decided to subject them to Page99Test. 'Why We Make Mistakes' by Joseph T.Hallinan is the first out here. The book subtitle is 'How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average'

Page 99 starts with a block sentence:

Those who want to watch a movie later pick highbrow movies; those who want to watch one now pick lowbrow movies.

Apparently these were the results from asking people who were about to rent movies from Blockbuster or Netflix. More information comes in the next paragraph, which takes most of this page.

In the second instance researchers found parallel effect occurred when they asked office workers to chose which of two snacks they want delivered in a week: fruit or junk food. Twist here is that workers were asked this question at two different times: (1) when they were likely to be hungry in the late afternoon; and (2) when they were likely to be full straight after lunch. Turns out that 78% of "hungry" group picked the unhealthy snack, but only 42% of the "full" group did the same. So, like with movie watchers, office workers went for easy instant gratification (my words) in food.

The page finishes intriguingly with the statement that

something similar happens when people buy clothes.

It then even more intriguingly claims that when temperature goes down not only do the orders for cold-weather gear go up, but so do the returns. The first is totally expected, the second definitely is not.

Given that this is how the page ends, I would without waiting want to turn the page and find out why this is the case.


So, what are the P99Test results in this case?

For a book that addresses why we make mistakes, we certainly are presented with several examples of the kind of 'mistakes' that it deals with. What we do not get here is any answers to the

Why

of the title.

Given that I will be reading this book, I followed with a peak into p.149 next in search of the answer. This turns out to be the first page of Chapter 10 entitled 'We All Think We're Above Average' and towards the bottom right has a box with the following text in highlights:

"Almost everyone is overconfident- except the people who are depressed, and they tend to be realists."

This was apparently the conclusion of Stefano Della Vigna, a professor of economics at University of California, Berkley based on his research in many different settings. So, here was at least one general answer to the title question.

On the basis of this short exploration, I venture to say - READ THIS BOOK. Oh, and you may also want to follow the links on Joe Hallinan's webpage and check out his blog there as well.

PS I take it you have spotted the Mistake on the book front page?

What is this with AdSense?

My first post here was over two years ago. May be three or even more. Ok, it had to do with broken plumbing.

Yet, next to my latest post on Page99Test I find adverts for plumbers. This does no good to them and it must puzzle the readers who come here from Twitter.

Perhaps this addition will shift the balance.

PS. I tested the above hypothesis. If I view this latest post alone all is well and I see adverts for Broadband etc. However, when viewed as part of the whole blog, the situation remains the same. Could this have anything to do with the picture I have included there?

What P.99 can tell us about the book

I have recently come across a great website called The Page 99 Test. So what is it all about? The recent Guardian article explains it in more detail:

Read page 99 of a new book and, according to Ford Madox Ford, you'll know whether you want to read the whole thing.

I love the variety offered. The site gets the authors to introduce briefly their work and explain what is on p.99 as well as how it relates to the whole.

Now for fun. Why not try it for yourself? Please let me know how you get on.

Two Christmases on

Looks like I am not a blogger really. So much I could have written about yet nothing shared here.

So, what changed in this period? First of all me. I have become isolated, night bird (really!), lazy and weak. Not sure why but here it is.

Perhaps this is the place to keep track f my return to normality. Even better, this is where I will chart my progress to finding a new purpose in life and work!

May this season be special to you all.

End of Year - again

something was here but I can't now remember what!

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Water, water everywhere

Why, oh why does one always need plumbers just before Big Holidays?

I woke up this morning to the water pouring somewhere. As I ran into the corridor, I could see a stream of water pouring from the ceiling. Run up the flight of stairs confirmed it was water gushing from the bathroom. Somehow, the cistern TOTALLY cracked and water was just trying to fill the hole!

All the engineering training comes in handy in emergencies like these - I jammed the water regulator valve up high - so at least the arrival of new water stopped. Mopping took quite a lot of towels, spinning, and then doing the same again.

The plumber arrived at 10pm and was good! Sent over by insurance company, so we did not even need to search or bargain. Nothing but to isolate it and for us to go in search of an item that has not been made in years. We do not know who was the manufacturer nor the model, so it will be interesting! Hence the photo above - just in case someone recognises this item.

Best part was that the plumber got all lyrical about the 'ceramic syphon' mechanism that is apparently very rare telling us that we must keep it. Who knows what other hidden treasures this house harbours?